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PEEL - The Futurama Message Board    Re-Check/Weird Scenes    Oil running out in 2038 « previous next »
Author Topic: Oil running out in 2038  (Read 1007 times)
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PEE Poll: Oil running out in 2038
Yes, around that time   -19 (52.8%)
No, oil will run out much sooner   -1 (2.8%)
Maybe, have no clue   -9 (25%)
No, later than that   -7 (19.4%)
Total Voters: 36

David A

Urban Legend
« Reply #40 on: 06-22-2005 18:49 »

Originally posted by bending_unit666:
Public transport is the answer! In britain, when i use it, it works preetty well! Although...you don't see much public transport in futurama do you?

There were the tubes in the first episode, but they never seemed to use them later.

The Listmaker
Urban Legend
« Reply #41 on: 06-22-2005 19:32 »

They where once more used in the beginning of "A flight to remember"

Public transport would be an answer, but not like we know it now. Busses and Undergroud-/Trains / Trams aren't individual enough to get people out of their cars to use them.
Other systems are in the need for it. Recently I've seen that Austrian engeneers are developing a system based on the roller-coaster technology.
Cars with space for 4 are set on such coaster rails, and accellerated by electro motors. These are charged through High energy Batteries, charged by either fuel cells, or contacs in the rail.
RS 2thou

Urban Legend
« Reply #42 on: 06-23-2005 11:11 »

Public transport is laugh where I live if your gonna use public transport from Mt. Barker(where I live) to any where in Adelaide(closet aussie city)I would to take a least to buses and at least one train to have a chance to get where I want to go, plus It'll take like two hours to get where I would go, car about 50 mintues. Plus in Australia if you want to use public transport out side of a city Its like 10x easier and quicker to use a car, public transport in my opinion is only truly effective in citys
Liquid Emperor
« Reply #43 on: 06-25-2005 11:44 »

At least my well royalty went up nicely this time (Resists urge to use smiley face).

« Reply #44 on: 06-27-2005 02:20 »

I believe that oil will always be available to those that specifically demand and can pay for oil. However, the number of those fulfilling those previous conditions will drop off significantly by the time that the price of oil increases by an order of magnitude. Even at $60 a barrel, or less than $1.50 per U.S. gallon, oil is a bargain liquid. It costs less than even bottled water. For now, there is very little incentive to try to conserve oil. According to the American Automobile Association, the average driver will spend more on insurance than on fuel.

Most importantly, plastic manufacturing will decrease, and will certainly not be missed (except by plastic manufacturers and their suppliers).  The stuff exists almost exclusively because it is cheaper. It is not entirely durable (I believe that it slowly dissolves in the presence of UV waves), not environmentally friendly (does not decompose quickly, and when it does, it leaves some nasty chemicals behind), nor aesthetically pleasing (how often have you heard the phrase "imitation plastic" as opposed to plastic being referred to as "imitation [something]" ).

Overall, oil and Ď60s muscle cars will probably not run out for over a century. They just wonít be practical, and they will be as ridiculous as a bridge made out of platinum (which I hear is an ideal material with which to make a bridge, if not for the cost). The real question is when 99% of people will stop using gasoline because it will become too rare. I would estimate somewhere around 2060, because I get a warm and fuzzy feeling about hybrids (their potential to reduce gasoline usage is so great that it scared some politicians in California into proposing to replace the gas tax with a per-mile tax), gasohol (better than gasoline except in price and the possible problem that it canít produce more energy than it takes to extract it), and pure electric cars (in the form of either hydrogen, battery, or ultra-capacitor). As for 2038, I believe that gasoline will still be fine and dandy then, but mainly be used in cars on long trips with the miles per gallon in the triple digit range. For commuting, I would guess that most cars would use electricity pumped into them overnight and possibly overhead wires. Mass transit suffers from the fact that it must be as fast as taking a car, but also make a stop every few hundred feet in order to be truly competitive and be able to replace the car.

« Reply #45 on: 06-30-2005 23:08 »

The studies of oil usage that I've actually read all produce the 30-40 year figure as the worst case scenario. This seems like a no-duh thing to say, but what it means is that when the researchers look at the statistics, the 30 year figure is the lower-range Nth percentile for the data. The latest I read (though it was 2 years ago.) was presenting their date range with 95% certainty.

This pretty much means that they are 95% certain oil will run about between 30 and 90 years (90 was the higher-range Nth percentile.) They way the math breaks down means that it is 97.5% likely that it will take longer than 30 years for us to run out of oil (However, it's also 97.5 percent likely that it will run out in less than 90.) The data also shows that it's MOST likely that oil will run out in 55-65 years.

The problem is that we're always told the worst case scenario by mass media to get a reaction out of us.
canned eggs

Space Pope
« Reply #46 on: 07-05-2005 19:55 »

Of course, Malthus predicted that we'd have run out already by now.  But technology keeps changing the curve.  At any rate, the age of petroleum will come to an end in the foreseeable future, but not because of some imagined apocalypse.  I mean, the stone age didn't end because we ran out of rocks; it ended because of bronze.

Starship Captain
« Reply #47 on: 07-14-2005 14:55 »

couldnt agree more with you canned eggs. it's not gonna run out completely because people will have invented a new technology (or technologies) to replace oil. but as long as oil is that cheap there are few incentives for firms and governments to fund the kind of levels of R&D needed to develop a viable alternative

Avatar Czar
DOOP Ubersecretary
« Reply #48 on: 07-14-2005 15:22 »

Also... people will die before then anyways.
Liquid Emperor
« Reply #49 on: 07-14-2005 17:48 »

It's not like you'll wake up tomorrow and find there isn't any anywhere at any price. You just have to think of what the price will be with 5% less available than last year, year after year. Then you have to figure in expanding 3rd world demand. Then consider how many billions of $ you would invest in a dying business.

Urban Legend
« Reply #50 on: 08-08-2005 17:56 »

Maybe by the first few years before oil runs out, it's so expensive that only stupid rich bastards like Shwarzenegger can afford it and they suck it all away in their stupid Hummers

Liquid Emperor
« Reply #51 on: 08-08-2005 21:43 »

IamBender: "Well if u want to be 'ultra-optimistic', you could vote later than that. But, from what ive read, its not really the reserves running out, but more production not meeting demand which is the problem. Peak production, if you will."
-That's what I was thinking too.

Teral: "We most likely wont run out of oil in 30 years, but the price for it will go up, since we will have to start using reserves which are more difficult, and hence more expensive, to extract."
-Also a good point.

-About one year ago, my history teacher gave our class a newspaper article that said oil would run out around the date 2050, which is pretty close to 2038. But now that I have read <IamBender's> and <Teral's> statements, there are other possibilities, since there are oil reserves that we know exist, but that we simply haven't dug for yet.
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